Ever watch the World Series of Poker on TV and see a pro make a seemingly crazy bluff (and NEVER get called?). Well, that’s great television right there. But, of course, each of these ‘big plays’ takes dozens of hands to set up. It requires intimate knowledge of your opponent and how they will react to a very specific situation to pull these plays off. Of course, a great play isn’t always a big bluff. It could be a stellar call or fold. Let’s analyze what goes into making these big plays.

You may have heard experienced poker players talking about “thinking on the next level”. Many players, when they are playing a poker hand, think (at least a little bit) about what their opponents might have. It is in my experience that, when playing online, you won’t find a lot of poker players who don’t think about their opponents’ holdings at all. In fact, many players (more than most winning players think) are actually pretty good at deducing what their opponents’ have, if only because they have built up a lot of experience reading hands over the years.

Fortunately for us, that’s as far as most players get. To beat these players, you have to think at the next level. While your opponents will be trying desperately to put you on a hand, you should be thinking about what they think you have. If you have made an obvious series of bets (say you raised pre-flop, and bet the flop and turn on a board T429), it’s pretty easy to think you could likely have pocket Kings. If you’re still being called, you should seriously considering checking or even folding the river if your opponents are conscious. Your opponents certainly know that Kings are a likely holding for you, so certainly they must be able to beat them!

Part of the value of your hand is how easy it is to read. I won’t advocate playing garbage hands just because they are hard to read, but be aware of how obvious it may seem your hand is to your opponents’. In some cases, it doesn’t make much difference how transparent your hand is (if the pot is huge compared to your stacks, for example). However, in many poker situations, the smaller range your opponent can put you on, the fewer mistakes he is likely to make. So you have to stay one step ahead of him, trying to figure out, based on your own bet patterns, what your opponent might think you have.

Most decisions in poker are easy, low level decisions. Do I fold under the gun with 46s? Do I shove with AQ and 5xBB in a tournament? They don’t require any extra information than what you can find by looking at your cards, position, and the blinds. But deeper stacks require deeper thought. As you face or make large bets remember that if your hand is easy to read, you might be setting yourself up for a crushing blow.

Remember, you only need to think one level above your opponents. Any more than that and you might find yourself making the exact opposite play than what you should. Effectively disguising your hand in a rich and complex topic, but in the meantime, play every hand from two angles: your own and your opponents’.

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